Nothing is as it seems as The Walking Dead season 11 heads into its final episodes. Our heroes have discovered something rotten at the heart of the initially benevolent Commonwealth, which has sparked several conflicts that won’t be solved with a pile of paperwork. War is about to erupt once again for Daryl, Maggie, Carol, and the rest of the survivors. Expect quite a few deaths before the show reaches its conclusion. As we have in past seasons, we’ve made some predictions regarding who will bite the bullet in the final season of The Walking Dead. For the final time, here are the characters we think are on the chopping block. Keep track of all The Walking Dead season 11 deaths below: Result: Dead Leah was shot in the head by Daryl.

Alden (Callan McAuliffe)

Prediction: Dies Result: Dead Alden died from his wounds after a confrontation with the Reapers. Result: Dead Leah betrayed Pope and stabbed him in the neck.

ALIVE

Pamela Milton (Laila Robins)

Prediction: Dies The Governor of the Commonwealth is a bureaucrat hellbent on preserving the way things were before the zombie outbreak, Milton even established a caste system within her settlement to propagate class inequality. She represents everything that was wrong with the world before the fall of society and the complete anti-thesis of how the Alexandrians do things. If you’ve read the comics, you know how Pamela’s story ends in Robert Kirkman and Charlie Adlard’s story, but the TV series is known for taking sharp left turns when you least expect it. One thing we know for sure is that the Alexandrians will have to reckon with Pamela’s rule before the series finale. This slime ball momma’s boy is a privileged scumbag who deserves nothing good in life but has it all, thanks to his name. When the tide eventually shifts in the Commonwealth, there’s little doubt Sebastian will be one of the first villains on the chopping block.

Lance Hornsby (Josh Hamilton)

Prediction: Dies This Commonwealth acolyte has shown his true colors in season 11 part 2. It turns out he’s kind of the main villain, a greedy opportunist hellbent on taking over Alexandria, Hilltop, and Oceanside as their new ruler. This puts him in Daryl and Maggie’s crosshairs, which is never a good thing.

Mercer (Michael James Shaw)

Prediction: Lives Mercer is loyal to the Commonwealth but there are more sides to him than his distinct orange military armor lets on. He’s one of the most interesting characters of the comic’s final storyline, and it would be a shame to lose him before we can see his story through. One big twist later, we’ve finally met the actual Stephanie. Since she’s only just arrived and has a big part to play in the Commonwealth arc, we’d like her to survive until the end.

Elijah (Okea Eme-Akwari)

Prediction: Lives Elijah made his debut in one of the most WTF moments of season 10 when he rescued Aaron and Alden from the Whisperers. For weeks after his reveal, people wondered who the man in the steal mask could be. When he returned in the final six episodes of season 10, the show just kind of moved on without fleshing him out, which is unfortunate since he looks so cool! I’m going to assume that the series is saving a big Elijah-focused episode for later in the season and that he’s too awesome to kill off. You don’t just introduce a blade expert in a steel mask for no reason!

Virgil (Kevin Carroll)

Prediction: Dies After debuting as somewhat of a villain, Virgil was spared by Michonne. He soon went on a journey to atone for his sins, helping a disoriented Connie make it back home. Although he’s disappeared, it’s possible we’ll see him again, possibly for one last sacrifice. Connie has a new lease on life after surviving the events of season 10. Now she’s a journalist at the Commonwealth, working to uncover the deep corruption at the very center of Pamela Milton’s government. While this likely will put her life in danger, she’s already escaped death once, so we’re not betting against her.

Lydia (Cassady McClincy)

Prediction: Lives Lydia was at the center of Alexandria’s conflict with the Whisperers for a season and a half. With Alpha and Beta defeated, and their faction all but obliterated, I have to wonder what Lydia has left to do on the show. That said, the writers have continued to find interesting ways to explore this character, and someone has to live on to lead the next generation of Alexandrians and Hilltoppers. I think Lydia is in it for the long haul.

Magna (Nadia Hilker)

Prediction: Dies Magna was sidelined pretty quickly after her introduction. While a reunion with Yumiko seems like the logical direction for her story, The Walking Dead universe is a cruel one. She could be headed toward tragedy. In season 11, Yumiko inherited a major storyline from the comics that likely means she’ll survive the final 24 episodes of the series. Of course, the TV show could always alter that storyline to bring a tragic end to Yumiko’s story.

Luke (Dan Fogler)

Prediction: Dies It’s pretty wild that Luke has survived as long as he has. A man of the arts hardly has a place in the cruel world of this show, but he has clumsily persevered thus far. But if the writers are planning an especially bloody final season, I’d put Luke on the short list.

Kelly (Angel Theory)

Prediction: Lives Kelly has been one of the best late additions to the show. It would suck for her to finally reunite with her sister only to meet an unexpected end. Now that Ezekiel is tumor-free, this likely means the character is in it for the long haul. Now that he’s working to undermine the settlement’s ruling class, could he end up sitting on a new throne as the next leader of the Commonwealth once the Miltons are toppled?

Jerry (Cooper Andrews)

Prediction: Dies I love Jerry and don’t want to see the tank with a heart of gold go. But if the season needs a death that pulls at the heart strings, Jerry is a prime candidate.

Father Gabriel Stokes (Seth Gilliam)

Prediction: Lives Gabriel has evolved so much since his debut in season 5, becoming one of Alexandria’s key leaders. He’s come so far and even survived longer than his comic book counterpart. I’d hate to see him go so close to the end. So I’m just going to say he lives. Aaron seemed destined to die seasons ago, too kind and trusting to survive this long. But here he is, still fighting and surviving. He’s lost the man he loves, his arm, and many friends — and it’s all hardened him into a war machine. It’d be a shame for him to die now.

Rosita Espinosa (Christian Serratos)

Prediction: Lives In the comics, Rosita’s head ended up on a pike during the Whisperer war, but her TV counterpart has persevered. It’s difficult to predict where her story goes at this point, but since she survived her comic book death, I assume the show’s writers have something in mind for her in season 11.

Eugene Porter (Josh McDermitt)

Prediction: Lives Eugene has become an unlikely protagonist going into season 11. From a mulleted coward hiding behind his intelligence so that others protect him to the Alexandrian leading his people to the Commonwealth, Eugene is central to the plot of the final season, and I think that means he’s safe. Plus, Eugene is hilarious, and The Walking Dead can always use a little comedic relief. Result: Lived NO.

Rick Grimes Jr. (Antony Azor)

Prediction: Lives Nah.

Negan (Jeffrey Dean Morgan)

Prediction: Lives

Carol Peletier (Melissa McBride)

Prediction: Lives This one’s an easy one: Melissa McBride is getting her own spinoff that will follow her character after The Walking Dead series finale. That means she’s safe.

Daryl Dixon (Norman Reedus)

Prediction: Lives Norman Reedus is joining McBride for that spinoff, so he’s safe, too. The actor even told us what the Daryl and Carol show will be about.

Maggie Rhee (Lauren Cohan)

Prediction: Lives